KISS Regime Report — Week of 6 July 2026 — BULLISH CLEAR
One verdict. The reasoning behind it. Your posture for the week ahead.
═══════════════════════════════════════════
WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT
═══════════════════════════════════════════
BULLISH CLEAR (upgraded from Bullish Caution)
Posture: Full deployment within risk caps · favor the rotation leaders
───────────────────────────────────────────
THE REASONING
───────────────────────────────────────────
SPY / QQQ STATUS
Last week the leaders had cracked and we stepped down to Caution. This
week they repaired — fast. SPY closed at 744.78, back above its 8, 20, 50
AND 200-day, all rising, right back near the highs. The pullback is fully
recovered; Stage 2 is not just intact, it’s re-confirmed. VIX fell to 16 —
calm, risk-on.
QQQ is the one lingering caveat: 712.60, still under its 8 and 20-day but
holding above its 50. Tech is repairing, not yet fully repaired. That’s
fine — because this is a broad-market green light, not a tech-led one, and
the leadership we want is everywhere else right now.
Key levels:
→ SPY: support 737 (50-day) → 692 (200-day). Overhead: 751 highs.
→ QQQ: the line to reclaim is its 8/20-day near 721. Support: 709 (50-day).
→ VIX 16 — no stress. A move back above 20 would be the first warning.
───────────────────────────────────────────
BREADTH CHECK
───────────────────────────────────────────
% of S&P 500 above 50-day: 67% (rising, +6.3% on the week)
% of S&P 500 above 200-day: 66% (rising, +7.1% on the week)
Verdict: STRONG AND BROADENING. Both readings climbed hard and sit in the
mid-60s. The average stock isn’t just fine — it’s improving. This is the
single most bullish chart on the desk this week.
───────────────────────────────────────────
WHERE THE LEADERSHIP IS
───────────────────────────────────────────
The rotation went WIDE. Gaining ground vs SPY: Industrials, Health Care,
Financials, Utilities, Materials, Staples, Real Estate, Discretionary —
and even Technology has flipped positive. Financials is the firmest of the
group, the only one with a strong, trend-confirmed daily signal.
Losing ground: only Comm Services, Energy and Metals.
When nearly every sector is building leadership at once, that’s a healthy
tape. The KISS caveat still applies: most of the new leaders are strong on
relative strength but not yet trend-confirmed on the daily — so favor the
cleanest bases in the firmest groups (Financials, Health Care, Industrials)
rather than forcing entries across the board.
───────────────────────────────────────────
MACRO FLAGS
───────────────────────────────────────────
The regime-changer: Thursday’s June jobs report came in soft — just 57K
vs ~115K expected, the lowest in four months, with prior months revised
down 74K. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, but for the “wrong”
reason: people left the labor force (participation hit a multi-year low).
For the RATE path — which is what markets care about right now — this was
a relief. A soft labor market takes the threat of a near-term Fed HIKE off
the table. Stocks rose, front-end yields fell (2Y to 4.13%), and the July
hike bet got pushed back. That’s the macro headwind from last week easing.
Week ahead (6–10 Jul): quiet on data. June FOMC minutes land mid-week;
weekly claims Thursday. The real catalyst is the June CPI on JULY 14 —
next week. A hot print could put the hike back on the table, so this
“clear” is clear into the 14th, not beyond it.
───────────────────────────────────────────
VERDICT RATIONALE
───────────────────────────────────────────
Everything that had us cautious last week reversed: SPY reclaimed its full
stack, breadth surged and broadened, the rotation widened to nearly every
sector, VIX fell, and the macro flipped from hawkish-risk to a dovish
relief. That’s a legitimate upgrade to Bullish Clear — full deployment,
within the usual risk caps.
Two things keep us honest, not cautious: QQQ hasn’t fully repaired (so we
lean on the non-tech leaders), and CPI on the 14th is a real swing risk
(so we don’t over-commit into it). Deploy — but keep the LVTD gate and the
stops exactly as strict as always. A green regime is permission to hunt,
never permission to relax the rules.
What would change it:
→ DOWNGRADE to Caution: SPY loses its 20-day, or breadth rolls back under
60%, or a hot CPI on the 14th revives the hike bet.
→ CONFIRM the strength: QQQ reclaims its 8/20-day and tech rejoins the
leadership — that’s the all-clear for the momentum names too.
═══════════════════════════════════════════
WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)
═══════════════════════════════════════════
Paid subscribers get the annotated Watchlist and the fully-sized Trade
Plan below — this week leaning into the firmest rotation leaders
(Financials, Health Care, Industrials), where the regime and the money are
both pointing. Everything decided before Monday opens. Upgrade at
kisstrading.uk.
───────────────────────────────────────────
Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process
— Radu / KISS Trading
───────────────────────────────────────────
⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.