KISS Regime Report — Week of 29 June 2026 — BULLISH CAUTION
One verdict. The reasoning behind it. Your posture for the week ahead.
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WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT
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BULLISH CAUTION
Posture: Reduced size · A-grade setups only · defined-risk preferred
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THE REASONING
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SPY / QQQ STATUS
The long-term uptrend is intact, but the short-term structure of the
leaders broke this week. SPY closed at 728.99 (-0.72%) — back below its
8-EMA (736.72), 20-MA (743.60) and 50-MA (734.35). The 8 has crossed
below the 20: a short-term momentum roll-over. The saving grace is the
200-day at 690.54, sitting far below — Stage 2 is not in question.
QQQ is the weak link: 706.52 (-1.38%), under its 8 and 20-day and now
resting right on its 50-day at 702.79. That line is the tell for the
week. Lose it on volume and the tech complex has more to give back.
The contrast is the whole story: IWN (small-cap value) closed at 221.43
(+0.60%) at the TOP of a clean, rising stack — price > 8 > 20 > 50 > 200.
Money isn’t leaving the market. It’s changing seats.
Key levels to watch:
→ SPY support: 716 (Fri low) → 690 (200-day). Resistance: 734-744 (MA cluster)
→ QQQ support: 702 (50-day — the line in the sand) → 690. Resistance: 718-725
→ VIX: 18.4 — elevated but not stressed. Watch a break above 21.
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BREADTH CHECK
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% of S&P 500 above 50-day: 64.3% (rising, +1.58%)
% of S&P 500 above 200-day: 63.5% (rising, +2.90%)
Advancers vs Decliners (5-day): ADVANCERS
Verdict: HEALTHY. Both readings are above 60% and climbing. This is the
single most important chart this week: the average stock is fine. The
weakness is concentrated in a handful of mega-caps, not the broad tape.
That is a rotation, not a top.
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WHERE THE LEADERSHIP IS GOING
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Gaining ground vs SPY → Industrials, Financials, Utilities, Real Estate,
Health Care, Staples, Materials. Defensives and value are taking the baton.
Losing ground vs SPY → Technology, Communication Services, Energy,
Consumer Discretionary, Metals. The old generals are stepping back.
The KISS caveat: most of the new leadership is still LOW daily-trend
confidence — the relative strength has turned, but the daily trends are
choppy, not clean. Financials is the firmest of the group. So mark where
the money is flowing, but let these names build proper bases before you
force an entry. Turning RS is an invitation, not a trigger.
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MACRO FLAGS — WEEK AHEAD (holiday-shortened)
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→ Mon 30 Jun: Quarter / half-year end — rebalancing flows, no major data
→ Wed 1 Jul: ISM Manufacturing PMI + JOLTS — first read on Q3
→ Thu 2 Jul: JUNE JOBS REPORT (released a day early) — consensus ~172K.
The week’s main event.
→ Fri 3 Jul: US markets CLOSED (Independence Day observed)
Backdrop: US10Y eased to 4.38% and is rolling over below its short-term
MAs — a tailwind. But May PCE ran hot (4.1% headline) and the Fed has
cuts off the table for 2026, with a hike later this year now a live risk.
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VERDICT RATIONALE
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The tape underneath is healthy — 64% of the index above both the 50 and
200-day, breadth rising, and a brand-new clean uptrend in small-cap value.
This is not a stand-down. But the names the KISS system actually hunts —
RS-leading momentum, heavy in tech — just lost their short-term structure,
and the sectors taking over aren’t trend-confirmed yet on the daily.
Old leadership broken + new leadership unconfirmed + a hawkish Fed into a
jobs-report week = caution, not clear. So we size down, demand A-grade
setups only, and lean on defined-risk where it fits — an ITM call caps
gap risk into Thursday’s print far better than a stop that can be gapped.
Let the rotation’s new leaders earn their bases before we chase.
What would change it:
→ UPGRADE toward Bullish Clear: QQQ reclaims its 8/20-day, OR the new
leaders (Financials, Industrials) firm up on rising daily trend strength.
→ DOWNGRADE to Neutral: SPY loses its 200-day, or breadth rolls back
under 50%.
What invalidates this verdict:
→ A soft jobs print that re-bids mega-cap tech back above its 20-day
→ QQQ losing its 50-day (702) on heavy volume, dragging breadth down
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WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)
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Paid subscribers receive immediately below:
→ The Weekly Watchlist with annotated PCP / BOS setups
→ Entry levels, stop losses, and R-targets
→ The Trade Plan of the Week — fully sized, ready to execute
This week’s watchlist leans into the rotation: the strongest bases in
the sectors that are gaining ground, not the ones losing it. Everything
is decided before Monday opens. Upgrade at kisstrading.uk.
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Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process
— Radu / KISS Trading
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⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.