KISS Regime Report — Week of 22 June 2026 — BULLISH CLEAR
The FOMC shock was absorbed. Leadership is broadening into Financials and Industrials.
═══════════════════════════════════════════
WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT
═══════════════════════════════════════════
BULLISH CLEAR
The market absorbed its first hawkish FOMC under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and recovered within two sessions. The trend remains intact. Breadth is rebuilding. Leadership is broadening beyond pure Technology.
The verdict holds at BULLISH CLEAR — now with confirmation rather than the FOMC-week caution that defined last week.
───────────────────────────────────────────
THE INDEX PICTURE
───────────────────────────────────────────
SPY — $746.74
Closed Friday +0.78%. Trading above the 50 MA ($729.66) and well above the 200 MA ($688.36). Price is hugging the 20 MA ($747.08) — the FOMC dip to $741 on Wednesday was fully recovered by Friday’s close. Structure intact.
QQQ — $740.62
The leader this week. Closed +2.51% Friday, trading above all major moving averages. Tech reasserted itself after the FOMC scare.
IWM — $216.87
Small caps closed +1.49%, holding near recent highs with all MAs stacked bullishly. Broad participation confirmed.
VIX — 16.41
This is the key signal. The VIX dropped 10.96% on Friday, fully deflating the FOMC spike. The fear that briefly appeared Wednesday is gone. No fear regime.
───────────────────────────────────────────
MARKET BREADTH
───────────────────────────────────────────
S5FI (% of S&P 500 above 50 MA): 55.26 — up +3.35% Friday, reclaiming its own moving average.
S5TH (% above 200 MA): 58.25 — stable, holding above the prior week.
Breadth is healthy and recovering. Not euphoric — which is what you want in a durable trend. The majority of stocks are participating without the froth that signals a top.
───────────────────────────────────────────
SECTOR ROTATION
───────────────────────────────────────────
The leadership story shifted meaningfully this week. Technology cooled from the top spot; Financials and Industrials accelerated.
BUILDING LEADERSHIP (RS slope, bps/day):
→ XLF Financials: +30.34 ← new #1
→ XLI Industrials: +25.90
→ XLV Health Care: +20.43
→ XLB Materials: +18.79
→ XLK Technology: +11.92
→ XLP Staples: +11.65
→ XLRE Real Estate: +10.86
LOSING GROUND:
→ XLY Discretionary: -11.65
→ XME Metals: -17.03
→ XLE Energy: -19.13
→ XLC Comm Services: -22.09
The rotation from Tech into Financials and Industrials is a sign of a healthy, broadening market — not a narrow one running on a handful of mega-caps. This is constructive.
───────────────────────────────────────────
THE MACRO CHECK
───────────────────────────────────────────
→ Fed Tone: Hawkish. Warsh’s first FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but half the committee now projects hikes this year. Forward guidance was dropped entirely.
→ 10-Year Treasury: Yields ticked up modestly post-FOMC but did not spike. TLT stabilizing near $86.75. Not yet a threat to equities, but worth watching.
→ The week ahead: Quieter macro calendar after last week’s FOMC. PCE inflation data is the main event to watch.
The hawkish Fed is a background pressure, not a present danger. As long as yields rise slowly rather than spike, equities can continue higher. A sharp move up in the 10-year would be the warning sign.
───────────────────────────────────────────
THE POSTURE FOR THIS WEEK
───────────────────────────────────────────
BULLISH CLEAR means full deployment within the risk rules:
→ Risk per trade: 0.75%
→ Max total open risk: 3% across all positions
→ Max single position: 25% of account
→ Focus sectors: Technology, Industrials, Health Care, Financials
With the FOMC behind us and no major catalyst this week, this is a cleaner environment for entries than last week. Trade every valid KISS setup that appears in a leading sector.
───────────────────────────────────────────
WHAT PAID SUBSCRIBERS GET
───────────────────────────────────────────
This free report gives you the regime. Paid subscribers get the execution:
→ The Weekly Watchlist: three annotated PCP setups (this week: NVT, MTSI, DFTX)
→ The Trade Plan of the Week: one setup fully sized with entry, stop, target, and position sizing for multiple account sizes
Upgrade to trade alongside the regime.
═══════════════════════════════════════════
📖 The book: KISS Trading — How to Swing Trade Stocks in 30 Minutes a Day
📬 This report lands free every Sunday: kisstrading.uk
───────────────────────────────────────────
Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process
— Radu
KISS Trading
⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.