═══════════════════════════════════════════

WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT

═══════════════════════════════════════════

NEUTRAL — DEFENSIVE 🟠

Posture: Capital preservation first. Reduced size, A-grade setups only,

no forced entries. Downgraded from Bullish Caution.

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE REASONING

───────────────────────────────────────────

SPY / QQQ STATUS

The index level tells you almost nothing useful this week. SPY closed

at 747, above its 8 EMA, 20-day and 50-day, and finished the week

higher. QQQ reclaimed its 8 EMA. On price alone, nothing is broken.

Underneath, the picture is different. QQQ sits below both its 20-day

(701) and 50-day (715), with the 20 now under the 50 — a genuine

short-term inversion, and roughly 11% off its June high. SPY has made

no net progress in six weeks; it is consolidating in a 735–757 band,

not trending. Small-cap value is flat and stalling at its 8 EMA.

The decisive fact is the divergence. On both Thursday and Friday the

index rose while breadth fell — on every measure. An advance that

narrows as it climbs is a handful of names doing the work.

Key levels to watch:

→ SPY support: $735 → $700 (200-day)

→ SPY resistance: $757

→ QQQ support: $680 → $645 (200-day)

→ QQQ resistance: $701 (20-day) → $715 (50-day)

───────────────────────────────────────────

BREADTH CHECK

───────────────────────────────────────────

LARGE CAP BROAD MARKET

Above 200-day 66.60 (S5TH) 56.14 (MMTH)

Above 50-day 62.02 (S5FI) 51.67 (MMFI)

Above 20-day — 45.18 (MMTW)

New highs / new lows — 1.28 (MAHN/MALN)

Concentration gap: +10.46 pts / +10.35 pts

5-day direction: Contracting — every layer fell Friday

(−2.89% / −2.50% / −1.13% / −2.80% / −4.16%)

Reference levels — the same on every report:

→ Above 70: extended participation

→ 40–70: normal range

→ Below 40: contracting

→ Below 25: washed out

Verdict: MIXED — deteriorating from a healthy base

Every reading sits inside the normal band. Nothing here is

broken. What matters is the shape.

The concentration gap is the number to watch. Large-cap breadth

runs roughly ten points ahead of the broad market on both the

200-day and the 50-day — the same spread on both horizons, which

makes it structural rather than noise. Two thirds of the S&P 500

holds its long-term trend. Barely half of the broad market does.

That gap is the entire watchlist story. We screen the full US

primary market, not five hundred large caps. Our setup pool lives

in the weaker column. Twelve candidates screened, ten rejected —

not because the scanner tightened, but because clean bases stop

forming when short-term participation contracts to 45%.

New highs versus new lows at 1.28 says the same thing from

another angle: leadership expansion has effectively stalled.

More highs than lows, but only just.

The index can look fine while the pool we fish in does not. This

week it does.

───────────────────────────────────────────

SECTOR ROTATION

───────────────────────────────────────────

ESTABLISHED LEADERSHIP — above SPY and still accelerating

XLF Financials RS 1.104 │ slope +113 │ ADX_D 30.5 HIGH

XLV Health Care RS 1.111 │ slope +86 │ ADX_W 22.4 MED

XLRE Real Estate RS 1.038 │ slope +94

XLI Industrials RS 1.038 │ slope +22

FORMING — below SPY but gaining fast

XLE Energy RS 0.996 │ slope +292 │ ADX_W 29.9 HIGH

XLP Staples RS 0.999 │ slope +57

XLB Materials RS 0.993 │ slope +25

LOSING GROUND

XLK Technology RS 0.983 │ slope -135 │ ADX_W 29.9 HIGH

QQQ Nasdaq 100 RS 0.959 │ slope -135

XLC Comm. Services RS 0.923 │ slope -89

XLY Cons. Disc. RS 0.985 │ slope -44

XME Metals RS 0.860 │ slope -16

Three things in this table matter.

ENERGY IS THE STORY, BUT IT ISN’T LEADERSHIP YET. Energy is

accelerating at +292 basis points per week — two and a half times the

next fastest sector on the board. Yet it still sits marginally BELOW

SPY on an absolute basis, at 0.996. It needs less than half a percent

to cross the line. This is leadership forming in real time, not

leadership you can lean on. Treat it as a hunting ground, not a

conviction bet, until RS clears 1.0 and holds.

FINANCIALS IS THE MOST COMPLETE POSITION ON THE BOARD. It is the only

sector with strong relative strength (1.104), strong acceleration

(+113) and a HIGH daily trend reading (ADX 30.5) at the same time.

Health Care carries a marginally higher RS at 1.111, but with weaker

trend confirmation. If you want one sector where the flow, the level

and the trend all agree, it is Financials.

THE SYMMETRY THAT DEFINES THE WEEK. Energy and Technology both print a

weekly trend strength of 29.9 — HIGH confidence on both. One is

accelerating at +292, the other decelerating at -135. Identical trend

force, opposite directions. That is not random drift between sectors.

That is a structured transfer of capital out of duration-sensitive

growth and into reflation assets, and rising long-end yields are the

mechanism driving it.

Note that Technology still shows RS above SPY on the daily measure

(1.012) while the weekly has already broken below (0.983). The daily

number is the residue of past leadership. The weekly is what is

happening now.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR HUNTING

Financials first, Energy second, Real Estate third. Technology and

Communication Services are where capital is leaving — a technically

perfect setup there remains valid on the rules, but it trades against

the flow. In a narrowing tape that is a headwind you do not need.

ROTATION SIGNAL: SELECTIVE RISK-ON — reflation, not broad expansion

───────────────────────────────────────────

MACRO FLAGS — WEEK AHEAD

───────────────────────────────────────────

→ July jobs report (Fri 7 Aug): the week’s main event. Consensus is

roughly 85k after 57k in June. A print above 100k likely pressures

equities by keeping restrictive policy in play longer

→ ISM Manufacturing (Mon 3 Aug): expected to expand, ~54 vs 53.3

→ JOLTS (Tue 4 Aug); ADP and ISM Services (Wed 5 Aug)

→ Earnings: Palantir (Mon), AMD, Caterpillar, Merck, McDonald’s,

Pfizer and SpaceX’s first public report (Tue), Eli Lilly and

Disney (Wed)

Backdrop: the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% with a 9–3 vote — three dissents

for a HIKE, the most one-directional dissent since 2016. Warsh

reaffirmed the 2% target but declined to say what would move him.

The bond market answered: the 30-year hit 5.25%, its highest since

2007, and the 10-year topped 4.7%, a level last seen in January 2025.

Core PCE came in at 3.3% annual with a soft 0.1% monthly print, while

Q2 GDP grew just 1.5% against 1.8% expected. Oil stayed bid as US–Iran

hostilities continued.

Equities rallied into the weekend anyway. Bonds are pricing an

inflation risk premium that stocks are not.

───────────────────────────────────────────

VERDICT RATIONALE

───────────────────────────────────────────

This is a downgrade, and it is worth being precise about what drove it,

because it was not the index.

Price structure actually held up. SPY is above its moving averages.

QQQ reclaimed its 8 EMA. Small-cap value keeps an ordered stack. If

price were the only input, the verdict would not have moved.

Breadth moved it. Fewer than half of all US stocks are above their

20-day. The broad 50-day measure is sitting on 50 exactly. New highs

versus new lows collapsed 40% in a week. And the index advanced on two

consecutive sessions while all of it deteriorated. That combination —

rising index, falling participation, yields at multi-decade highs — is

not a regime that rewards aggression.

This is not a stop. Fifty-six percent of the market is still above its

200-day, so a candidate universe exists. But the conversion rate from

screen to executable setup will stay low, and that is a property of the

regime, not a fault in the filter. Clean bases are scarce because

participation is thin. The correct response is to take fewer trades,

not to loosen the rules until more of them qualify.

Where to hunt is covered in the rotation section above. The short

version: Financials carries the most complete signal, Energy the

fastest acceleration, and in a narrowing tape that distinction matters

more, not less.

What would change it:

→ UPGRADE back to Bullish Caution: broad % above 20-day reclaims 50

and holds, OR QQQ recovers its 20-day at 701 on volume

→ DOWNGRADE to Deteriorating: QQQ closes below its 200-day (645), OR

broad % above 200-day breaks under 50, OR US10Y clears 4.75% and

accelerates the rotation

What invalidates this verdict:

→ A soft jobs print that pulls yields back and re-broadens the tape

→ SPY breaking $735 on heavy volume — that would be worse, not better

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)

═══════════════════════════════════════════

Paid subscribers receive immediately below:

→ The Weekly Watchlist with annotated PCP / BOS setups

→ Entry levels, stop losses, and R-targets

→ The Trade Plan of the Week — fully sized, ready to execute

In a narrowing tape the watchlist gets shorter, not looser. This week

it leans into Financials and Energy, flags Friday’s jobs report as the

session that decides the next verdict, and names which setups are armed

versus waiting. Everything is decided before Monday opens.

Upgrade at kisstrading.uk.

───────────────────────────────────────────

Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process

— Radu / KISS Trading

───────────────────────────────────────────

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT

═══════════════════════════════════════════

BULLISH CAUTION 🟡

Posture: Selective — lean the rotation, respect a wall of event risk

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE REASONING

───────────────────────────────────────────

SPY / QQQ STATUS

Two straight down weeks — but read WHERE the damage is. SPY slipped

below its 20/50 cluster (744–746) yet held far above a rising 200-day,

and fell less than 1% on the week. QQQ is the casualty: it lost 700 and

now sits below its 8, 20 AND 50-day, dragged by an AI-capex scare that

has the chip complex ~20% off its June high. Mega-cap tech broke.

Everything else did not — small-cap value is still trending, and the

decline never spread. VIX sat at 18.5 through it all: an orderly

rotation, not a panic.

Key levels to watch:

→ SPY support: $730 → $698 (200-day)

→ SPY resistance: $746 (reclaim 20/50) → $757

→ QQQ support: $680 → $643 (200-day)

→ QQQ resistance: $700 (8 EMA) → $718 (50-day)

───────────────────────────────────────────

BREADTH CHECK

───────────────────────────────────────────

% of S&P 500 above 50 MA: 65%

% of S&P 500 above 200 MA: 66%

Advancers vs Decliners: Advancers (breadth rose as QQQ fell)

New Highs vs New Lows: Split — value/energy new highs, mega-cap tech new lows

Verdict: Healthy — and this is the whole story

The single most important line in this report: breadth ROSE on Friday

while QQQ fell. Sixty-five percent of the index is above its 50-day.

When the tape sells off but breadth climbs, the weakness is narrow and

concentrated — this is rotation, not a top.

───────────────────────────────────────────

MACRO FLAGS — WEEK AHEAD

───────────────────────────────────────────

→ FOMC decision (Wed 29 Jul, 2:00pm ET): Warsh presser 2:30pm, no new

SEP. A hold is expected, but the lean is hawkish — the tone is the event

→ Core PCE (Thu 30 Jul): the Fed’s preferred gauge, consensus ~3.3% YoY.

Still sticky. Plus Q2 GDP the same window

→ Mega-cap earnings: Microsoft + Meta (Wed, same day as the Fed),

Apple + Amazon (Thu) — the AI-capex verdict continues

→ Chicago PMI + jobless claims round out the week

Backdrop: two down weeks driven by AI hyperscaler spending fears, not

the economy. Brent slipped back below $100, easing the oil shock and

pulling inflation fear off the boil. But the 10-year is firming toward

4.68% into a Fed week — a quiet headwind. This is the densest event

week of the quarter: Fed, Core PCE and four mega-caps inside 72 hours.

───────────────────────────────────────────

VERDICT RATIONALE

───────────────────────────────────────────

We hold the line at Caution, and the reason is discipline, not comfort.

The framework’s downgrade to Neutral requires one of two things: SPY

losing its 200-day, or breadth rolling under 50%. Neither happened —

breadth is 65% and rising, SPY is miles above a rising 200. So we do

not go Neutral just because the headlines are red.

What actually changed is that the rotation clarified. Energy is now

unambiguous leadership, Financials and Real Estate right behind it,

while tech, semis and discretionary sit at the bottom of the map. That

is a GIFT for a system that hunts leaders and avoids the broken names

anyway — the weakness is concentrated exactly where KISS doesn’t fish.

The catch is timing. Any position filled Monday or Tuesday runs

straight into the Fed on Wednesday and Core PCE plus Apple/Amazon on

Thursday. So: hunt in Energy, Financials and Real Estate — the sectors

gaining ground — size down, and treat mid-week as a no-new-orders zone.

What would change it:

→ UPGRADE toward Bullish Clear: QQQ reclaims 718 on volume, OR a benign

Fed + soft Core PCE re-bids the whole tape

→ DOWNGRADE to Neutral: SPY loses its 200-day, OR breadth rolls under

50%, OR a hawkish Fed surprise breaks the rotation into broad risk-off

What invalidates this verdict:

→ SPY closing below $730 on heavy volume

→ A VIX spike above 25 on a Fed or earnings shock

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)

═══════════════════════════════════════════

Paid subscribers receive immediately below:

→ The Weekly Watchlist with annotated PCP / BOS setups

→ Entry levels, stop losses, and R-targets

→ The Trade Plan of the Week — fully sized, ready to execute

This week’s watchlist hunts the confirmed rotation — the cleanest bases

in Energy, Financials and Real Estate — and flags the mid-week event

wall so you know which sessions are no-new-order zones. Everything is

decided before Monday opens. Upgrade at kisstrading.uk.

───────────────────────────────────────────

Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process

— Radu / KISS Trading

───────────────────────────────────────────

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT

═══════════════════════════════════════════

BULLISH CAUTION 🟡

Posture: Selective only — reduced size, A-grade setups, lean the rotation

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE REASONING

───────────────────────────────────────────

SPY / QQQ STATUS

SPY slipped under its 8, 20 AND 50-day on Friday’s −1% session — but

those three MAs are stacked tight (744–749) and price is sitting at the

top of a two-month range, not breaking down. It remains far above a

rising 200-day. QQQ is the tell: it lost 700 and closed below its 8, 20

and 50-day, dragged by a hard rout in chips and AI names. That was the

exact downgrade trigger we flagged last week. Meanwhile small-cap value

(IWN) is still trending clean above rising short-term MAs — the rotation

we’ve been tracking is now confirmed on BOTH sides.

Key levels to watch:

→ SPY support: $735 → $696 (200-day)

→ SPY resistance: $749 (reclaim 8/20/50) → $757

→ QQQ support: $686 → $660

→ QQQ resistance: $702 → $719 (50-day)

───────────────────────────────────────────

BREADTH CHECK

───────────────────────────────────────────

% of S&P 500 above 50 MA: 64%

% of S&P 500 above 200 MA: 66%

Advancers vs Decliners (5-day): Decliners (tech-led)

New Highs vs New Lows: Mixed — value/defensive new highs, tech new lows

Verdict: Healthy but softening

───────────────────────────────────────────

MACRO FLAGS — WEEK AHEAD

───────────────────────────────────────────

→ Fed Chair Warsh testimony (Tue–Wed): first Congressional appearance as

Chair — tone on the rate path and balance sheet is the macro event

→ Alphabet earnings (Wed, after close): the key read on the AI trade

after this week’s chip rout; Tesla also reports

→ Intel earnings (Thu, after close): chip-sector sentiment gauge

→ July prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Fri)

Backdrop: June CPI and PPI both came in COOLER than expected, pulling Fed

hike odds back — a tailwind. But WTI crude ran +14% on the week on the

US–Iran escalation and Strait of Hormuz disruption, VIX popped +12% to

~18.8, and US10Y is holding firm near 4.55%. FOMC is 28–29 July, so the

Fed is now in blackout.

───────────────────────────────────────────

VERDICT RATIONALE

───────────────────────────────────────────

The tape underneath is still healthy — 64% of the index above its 50-day,

66% above the 200-day, SPY well above a rising 200, and a genuine clean

uptrend in small-cap value. This is not a stand-down. But the names the

KISS system actually hunts — RS-leading momentum, tech-heavy — just lost

their short-term structure on real volume, and a fresh oil/geopolitical

shock arrived on top of it.

The difference from last week: the rotation’s new leaders are no longer

unconfirmed. Financials and Energy are now building daily trend strength,

Health Care and Comm Services alongside them. So we don’t fight the tape —

we follow it. Size down, demand A-grade bases ONLY, and hunt in the

sectors gaining ground (financials, energy, health), not the ones losing

it (tech, semis, materials). Every setup still gets the dynamic-ceiling

and LVTD gate — no exceptions in a week with a live geopolitical tail.

What would change it:

→ UPGRADE toward Bullish Clear: QQQ reclaims 719 (50-day) on volume, OR

a peaceful de-escalation pulls oil back and re-bids the whole tape

→ DOWNGRADE to Neutral: SPY loses its 200-day, OR breadth rolls back

under 50%, OR the Iran situation escalates into a supply shock

What invalidates this verdict:

→ SPY closing below $735 range support on heavy volume

→ A disorderly VIX spike above 25 on Hormuz headlines

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)

═══════════════════════════════════════════

Paid subscribers receive immediately below:

→ The Weekly Watchlist with annotated PCP / BOS setups

→ Entry levels, stop losses, and R-targets

→ The Trade Plan of the Week — fully sized, ready to execute

This week’s watchlist leans hard into the confirmed rotation: the

strongest bases in Financials, Energy and Health Care — the sectors

gaining ground — and steps aside from tech and semis. Everything is

decided before Monday opens. Upgrade at kisstrading.uk.

───────────────────────────────────────────

Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process

— Radu / KISS Trading

───────────────────────────────────────────

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT

═══════════════════════════════════════════

BULLISH CLEAR (maintained from last week)

Posture: Full deployment within risk caps · concentrate on the two

confirmed leaders, not the broad tape

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE REASONING

───────────────────────────────────────────

SPY / QQQ / INDEX STATUS

The rally that started two weeks ago on the soft jobs report never broke

stride. The Dow closed above 53,000 for the first time, notching fresh

records through the week. SPY closed Friday at 754.95, VIX fell to 15.02

— genuinely calm, near the low end of its recent range. This is a market

with no fear in it right now.

QQQ told a different story: choppy, range-bound since June, closing

Friday at 725.51. Chip stocks sold off mid-week on profit-taking, then

partly recovered into Friday on SK Hynix’s record-breaking IPO and a

bullish note on Meta’s AI compute business. Net result: tech is roughly

10% off its own recent peak even as the broad index sits at records. That

is the headline nuance for this week — the index is strong, but the

engine that drove it all year has quietly stepped back.

Key levels:

→ SPY: no meaningful resistance overhead — this is price-discovery mode.

First support is the rising 20-day, currently in the low 740s.

→ QQQ: range-bound roughly 700–730 since mid-June. A close outside that

band either direction is the tell.

→ VIX 15 — low and calm. A move back above 20 would be the first crack.

───────────────────────────────────────────

BREADTH CHECK

───────────────────────────────────────────

% of S&P 500 above 50-day: 67.8% (steady, still rising)

% of S&P 500 above 200-day: 65.8% (steady, still rising)

Verdict: STRONG AND STABLE. Both readings are holding at the same high

level as last week — this isn’t a narrow, index-only rally. The average

stock remains participating even as leadership underneath rotates.

───────────────────────────────────────────

WHERE THE LEADERSHIP ACTUALLY IS

───────────────────────────────────────────

This is the real story of the week: leadership NARROWED and SHARPENED.

Two weeks ago nearly every sector was “building leadership” in the

post-jobs-report relief bounce. Now the scanner shows only two names with

genuine, high-confidence trend strength:

→ Health Care (XLV) — RS vs SPY 1.011, trend confidence HIGH, the

strongest slope on the board.

→ Financials (XLF) — RS vs SPY 0.991, trend confidence HIGH, and walking

straight into its own catalyst (below).

Industrials and Utilities are still nominally “building” but on LOW

trend confidence — read those as noise, not signal, until they firm up.

Losing ground, and clearly so: Technology, the Nasdaq 100, Communication

Services, Real Estate, Discretionary, Staples, Materials, Energy, Metals.

That’s a long list — this is a market getting more selective, not less

healthy. New-high indices with narrowing, high-conviction leadership is a

normal and constructive stage of a bull market, not a warning sign by

itself. But it does mean the days of “everything works” are behind us for

now — demand real confirmation, not just a rising tape.

───────────────────────────────────────────

MACRO & CATALYST FLAGS — WEEK AHEAD

───────────────────────────────────────────

This week has a genuine fulcrum day, and it’s not subtle:

→ TUESDAY 14 JULY — the single busiest day of the summer so far:

• 8:30 AM ET: June CPI. May’s print ran hot at 4.2% y/y, the highest

since April 2023, driven largely by Middle East-linked energy prices.

This is the number that decides whether the Fed’s rate-hike risk

(extinguished by the soft jobs report two weeks ago) stays dead or

comes back to life before the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.

• Same day: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and

Morgan Stanley all report Q2 earnings before the bell.

→ WEDNESDAY 15 JULY: JPMorgan reports.

→ Q2 EARNINGS SEASON broadly kicks off this week (Netflix, Johnson &

Johnson, UnitedHealth, United Airlines among others). Aggregate S&P 500

earnings growth is expected near +23% y/y — the fastest pace since

2021. That’s a real fundamental tailwind behind the record highs, not

just sentiment.

→ Backdrop: US10Y sits at 4.56%, drifting up over the past two weeks but

still well inside its recent range (support ~4.40%, resistance ~4.70%).

Not a red flag yet — but it’s the first place a hot CPI print would

show up.

───────────────────────────────────────────

VERDICT RATIONALE

───────────────────────────────────────────

Nothing here argues for caution: records intact, breadth strong and

stable, VIX low, and a real earnings tailwind arriving this week. Bullish

Clear is maintained, full deployment within caps.

But “clear” doesn’t mean “hunt everywhere.” With leadership down to two

HIGH-confidence sectors, the discipline this week is concentration —

Financials and Health Care carry the conviction; everything else is

increasingly a lower-quality chase, regardless of how the index looks.

And Tuesday is a genuine pivot: a hot CPI print landing on the same day

as five major bank earnings could move the regime fast in either

direction. Trade the plan into Tuesday, not through it blindly.

What would upgrade the picture further: Financials earnings beat cleanly

and the sector’s leadership firms up on the daily, not just the weekly.

What would downgrade it: a hot CPI revives the hike narrative, or a weak

reaction to bank earnings breaks Financials’ structure — either would be

the first real test this rally has faced since the jobs-report relief.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)

═══════════════════════════════════════════

Paid subscribers get the annotated Watchlist and fully-sized Trade Plan

below — this week concentrated in Financials and Health Care, the only

two sectors carrying real conviction into a binary Tuesday. Everything

decided before Monday opens. Upgrade at kisstrading.uk.

───────────────────────────────────────────

Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process

— Radu / KISS Trading

───────────────────────────────────────────

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT

═══════════════════════════════════════════

BULLISH CLEAR (upgraded from Bullish Caution)

Posture: Full deployment within risk caps · favor the rotation leaders

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE REASONING

───────────────────────────────────────────

SPY / QQQ STATUS

Last week the leaders had cracked and we stepped down to Caution. This

week they repaired — fast. SPY closed at 744.78, back above its 8, 20, 50

AND 200-day, all rising, right back near the highs. The pullback is fully

recovered; Stage 2 is not just intact, it’s re-confirmed. VIX fell to 16 —

calm, risk-on.

QQQ is the one lingering caveat: 712.60, still under its 8 and 20-day but

holding above its 50. Tech is repairing, not yet fully repaired. That’s

fine — because this is a broad-market green light, not a tech-led one, and

the leadership we want is everywhere else right now.

Key levels:

→ SPY: support 737 (50-day) → 692 (200-day). Overhead: 751 highs.

→ QQQ: the line to reclaim is its 8/20-day near 721. Support: 709 (50-day).

→ VIX 16 — no stress. A move back above 20 would be the first warning.

───────────────────────────────────────────

BREADTH CHECK

───────────────────────────────────────────

% of S&P 500 above 50-day: 67% (rising, +6.3% on the week)

% of S&P 500 above 200-day: 66% (rising, +7.1% on the week)

Verdict: STRONG AND BROADENING. Both readings climbed hard and sit in the

mid-60s. The average stock isn’t just fine — it’s improving. This is the

single most bullish chart on the desk this week.

───────────────────────────────────────────

WHERE THE LEADERSHIP IS

───────────────────────────────────────────

The rotation went WIDE. Gaining ground vs SPY: Industrials, Health Care,

Financials, Utilities, Materials, Staples, Real Estate, Discretionary —

and even Technology has flipped positive. Financials is the firmest of the

group, the only one with a strong, trend-confirmed daily signal.

Losing ground: only Comm Services, Energy and Metals.

When nearly every sector is building leadership at once, that’s a healthy

tape. The KISS caveat still applies: most of the new leaders are strong on

relative strength but not yet trend-confirmed on the daily — so favor the

cleanest bases in the firmest groups (Financials, Health Care, Industrials)

rather than forcing entries across the board.

───────────────────────────────────────────

MACRO FLAGS

───────────────────────────────────────────

The regime-changer: Thursday’s June jobs report came in soft — just 57K

vs ~115K expected, the lowest in four months, with prior months revised

down 74K. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, but for the “wrong”

reason: people left the labor force (participation hit a multi-year low).

For the RATE path — which is what markets care about right now — this was

a relief. A soft labor market takes the threat of a near-term Fed HIKE off

the table. Stocks rose, front-end yields fell (2Y to 4.13%), and the July

hike bet got pushed back. That’s the macro headwind from last week easing.

Week ahead (6–10 Jul): quiet on data. June FOMC minutes land mid-week;

weekly claims Thursday. The real catalyst is the June CPI on JULY 14 —

next week. A hot print could put the hike back on the table, so this

“clear” is clear into the 14th, not beyond it.

───────────────────────────────────────────

VERDICT RATIONALE

───────────────────────────────────────────

Everything that had us cautious last week reversed: SPY reclaimed its full

stack, breadth surged and broadened, the rotation widened to nearly every

sector, VIX fell, and the macro flipped from hawkish-risk to a dovish

relief. That’s a legitimate upgrade to Bullish Clear — full deployment,

within the usual risk caps.

Two things keep us honest, not cautious: QQQ hasn’t fully repaired (so we

lean on the non-tech leaders), and CPI on the 14th is a real swing risk

(so we don’t over-commit into it). Deploy — but keep the LVTD gate and the

stops exactly as strict as always. A green regime is permission to hunt,

never permission to relax the rules.

What would change it:

→ DOWNGRADE to Caution: SPY loses its 20-day, or breadth rolls back under

60%, or a hot CPI on the 14th revives the hike bet.

→ CONFIRM the strength: QQQ reclaims its 8/20-day and tech rejoins the

leadership — that’s the all-clear for the momentum names too.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)

═══════════════════════════════════════════

Paid subscribers get the annotated Watchlist and the fully-sized Trade

Plan below — this week leaning into the firmest rotation leaders

(Financials, Health Care, Industrials), where the regime and the money are

both pointing. Everything decided before Monday opens. Upgrade at

kisstrading.uk.

───────────────────────────────────────────

Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process

— Radu / KISS Trading

───────────────────────────────────────────

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT

═══════════════════════════════════════════

BULLISH CAUTION

Posture: Reduced size · A-grade setups only · defined-risk preferred

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE REASONING

───────────────────────────────────────────

SPY / QQQ STATUS

The long-term uptrend is intact, but the short-term structure of the

leaders broke this week. SPY closed at 728.99 (-0.72%) — back below its

8-EMA (736.72), 20-MA (743.60) and 50-MA (734.35). The 8 has crossed

below the 20: a short-term momentum roll-over. The saving grace is the

200-day at 690.54, sitting far below — Stage 2 is not in question.

QQQ is the weak link: 706.52 (-1.38%), under its 8 and 20-day and now

resting right on its 50-day at 702.79. That line is the tell for the

week. Lose it on volume and the tech complex has more to give back.

The contrast is the whole story: IWN (small-cap value) closed at 221.43

(+0.60%) at the TOP of a clean, rising stack — price > 8 > 20 > 50 > 200.

Money isn’t leaving the market. It’s changing seats.

Key levels to watch:

→ SPY support: 716 (Fri low) → 690 (200-day). Resistance: 734-744 (MA cluster)

→ QQQ support: 702 (50-day — the line in the sand) → 690. Resistance: 718-725

→ VIX: 18.4 — elevated but not stressed. Watch a break above 21.

───────────────────────────────────────────

BREADTH CHECK

───────────────────────────────────────────

% of S&P 500 above 50-day: 64.3% (rising, +1.58%)

% of S&P 500 above 200-day: 63.5% (rising, +2.90%)

Advancers vs Decliners (5-day): ADVANCERS

Verdict: HEALTHY. Both readings are above 60% and climbing. This is the

single most important chart this week: the average stock is fine. The

weakness is concentrated in a handful of mega-caps, not the broad tape.

That is a rotation, not a top.

───────────────────────────────────────────

WHERE THE LEADERSHIP IS GOING

───────────────────────────────────────────

Gaining ground vs SPY → Industrials, Financials, Utilities, Real Estate,

Health Care, Staples, Materials. Defensives and value are taking the baton.

Losing ground vs SPY → Technology, Communication Services, Energy,

Consumer Discretionary, Metals. The old generals are stepping back.

The KISS caveat: most of the new leadership is still LOW daily-trend

confidence — the relative strength has turned, but the daily trends are

choppy, not clean. Financials is the firmest of the group. So mark where

the money is flowing, but let these names build proper bases before you

force an entry. Turning RS is an invitation, not a trigger.

───────────────────────────────────────────

MACRO FLAGS — WEEK AHEAD (holiday-shortened)

───────────────────────────────────────────

→ Mon 30 Jun: Quarter / half-year end — rebalancing flows, no major data

→ Wed 1 Jul: ISM Manufacturing PMI + JOLTS — first read on Q3

→ Thu 2 Jul: JUNE JOBS REPORT (released a day early) — consensus ~172K.

The week’s main event.

→ Fri 3 Jul: US markets CLOSED (Independence Day observed)

Backdrop: US10Y eased to 4.38% and is rolling over below its short-term

MAs — a tailwind. But May PCE ran hot (4.1% headline) and the Fed has

cuts off the table for 2026, with a hike later this year now a live risk.

───────────────────────────────────────────

VERDICT RATIONALE

───────────────────────────────────────────

The tape underneath is healthy — 64% of the index above both the 50 and

200-day, breadth rising, and a brand-new clean uptrend in small-cap value.

This is not a stand-down. But the names the KISS system actually hunts —

RS-leading momentum, heavy in tech — just lost their short-term structure,

and the sectors taking over aren’t trend-confirmed yet on the daily.

Old leadership broken + new leadership unconfirmed + a hawkish Fed into a

jobs-report week = caution, not clear. So we size down, demand A-grade

setups only, and lean on defined-risk where it fits — an ITM call caps

gap risk into Thursday’s print far better than a stop that can be gapped.

Let the rotation’s new leaders earn their bases before we chase.

What would change it:

→ UPGRADE toward Bullish Clear: QQQ reclaims its 8/20-day, OR the new

leaders (Financials, Industrials) firm up on rising daily trend strength.

→ DOWNGRADE to Neutral: SPY loses its 200-day, or breadth rolls back

under 50%.

What invalidates this verdict:

→ A soft jobs print that re-bids mega-cap tech back above its 20-day

→ QQQ losing its 50-day (702) on heavy volume, dragging breadth down

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)

═══════════════════════════════════════════

Paid subscribers receive immediately below:

→ The Weekly Watchlist with annotated PCP / BOS setups

→ Entry levels, stop losses, and R-targets

→ The Trade Plan of the Week — fully sized, ready to execute

This week’s watchlist leans into the rotation: the strongest bases in

the sectors that are gaining ground, not the ones losing it. Everything

is decided before Monday opens. Upgrade at kisstrading.uk.

───────────────────────────────────────────

Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process

— Radu / KISS Trading

───────────────────────────────────────────

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT

═══════════════════════════════════════════

BULLISH CLEAR

The market absorbed its first hawkish FOMC under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and recovered within two sessions. The trend remains intact. Breadth is rebuilding. Leadership is broadening beyond pure Technology.

The verdict holds at BULLISH CLEAR — now with confirmation rather than the FOMC-week caution that defined last week.

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE INDEX PICTURE

───────────────────────────────────────────

SPY — $746.74

Closed Friday +0.78%. Trading above the 50 MA ($729.66) and well above the 200 MA ($688.36). Price is hugging the 20 MA ($747.08) — the FOMC dip to $741 on Wednesday was fully recovered by Friday’s close. Structure intact.

QQQ — $740.62

The leader this week. Closed +2.51% Friday, trading above all major moving averages. Tech reasserted itself after the FOMC scare.

IWM — $216.87

Small caps closed +1.49%, holding near recent highs with all MAs stacked bullishly. Broad participation confirmed.

VIX — 16.41

This is the key signal. The VIX dropped 10.96% on Friday, fully deflating the FOMC spike. The fear that briefly appeared Wednesday is gone. No fear regime.

───────────────────────────────────────────

MARKET BREADTH

───────────────────────────────────────────

S5FI (% of S&P 500 above 50 MA): 55.26 — up +3.35% Friday, reclaiming its own moving average.

S5TH (% above 200 MA): 58.25 — stable, holding above the prior week.

Breadth is healthy and recovering. Not euphoric — which is what you want in a durable trend. The majority of stocks are participating without the froth that signals a top.

───────────────────────────────────────────

SECTOR ROTATION

───────────────────────────────────────────

The leadership story shifted meaningfully this week. Technology cooled from the top spot; Financials and Industrials accelerated.

BUILDING LEADERSHIP (RS slope, bps/day):

→ XLF Financials: +30.34 ← new #1

→ XLI Industrials: +25.90

→ XLV Health Care: +20.43

→ XLB Materials: +18.79

→ XLK Technology: +11.92

→ XLP Staples: +11.65

→ XLRE Real Estate: +10.86

LOSING GROUND:

→ XLY Discretionary: -11.65

→ XME Metals: -17.03

→ XLE Energy: -19.13

→ XLC Comm Services: -22.09

The rotation from Tech into Financials and Industrials is a sign of a healthy, broadening market — not a narrow one running on a handful of mega-caps. This is constructive.

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE MACRO CHECK

───────────────────────────────────────────

→ Fed Tone: Hawkish. Warsh’s first FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but half the committee now projects hikes this year. Forward guidance was dropped entirely.

→ 10-Year Treasury: Yields ticked up modestly post-FOMC but did not spike. TLT stabilizing near $86.75. Not yet a threat to equities, but worth watching.

→ The week ahead: Quieter macro calendar after last week’s FOMC. PCE inflation data is the main event to watch.

The hawkish Fed is a background pressure, not a present danger. As long as yields rise slowly rather than spike, equities can continue higher. A sharp move up in the 10-year would be the warning sign.

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE POSTURE FOR THIS WEEK

───────────────────────────────────────────

BULLISH CLEAR means full deployment within the risk rules:

→ Risk per trade: 0.75%

→ Max total open risk: 3% across all positions

→ Max single position: 25% of account

→ Focus sectors: Technology, Industrials, Health Care, Financials

With the FOMC behind us and no major catalyst this week, this is a cleaner environment for entries than last week. Trade every valid KISS setup that appears in a leading sector.

───────────────────────────────────────────

WHAT PAID SUBSCRIBERS GET

───────────────────────────────────────────

This free report gives you the regime. Paid subscribers get the execution:

→ The Weekly Watchlist: three annotated PCP setups (this week: NVT, MTSI, DFTX)

→ The Trade Plan of the Week: one setup fully sized with entry, stop, target, and position sizing for multiple account sizes

Upgrade to trade alongside the regime.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

📖 The book: KISS Trading — How to Swing Trade Stocks in 30 Minutes a Day

📬 This report lands free every Sunday: kisstrading.uk

───────────────────────────────────────────

Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process

— Radu

KISS Trading

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WEEKLY REGIME VERDICT

═══════════════════════════════════════════

BULLISH CLEAR

Posture: Full deployment, with FOMC-week tactical caution

───────────────────────────────────────────

THE REASONING

───────────────────────────────────────────

SPY closed Friday at $741.75, slightly below the 20 MA ($745.07) but holding well above the 50 MA ($722.80) and 200 MA ($686.30). The pullback this past week is cosmetic — Stage 2 uptrend structure remains fully intact.

QQQ at $721.34 is testing its 20 MA ($721.50) as support. The same controlled pullback pattern as SPY.

IWM (small caps) is the standout: $218.33, sitting at 52-week highs, perfectly aligned with all moving averages stacked beneath. Small caps participating at the high is a strong breadth confirmation.

Key levels to watch:

→ SPY support: $722.80 (50 MA)

→ SPY resistance: $745 (20 MA reclaim)

→ QQQ support: $717 (8 EMA)

→ QQQ resistance: $730

───────────────────────────────────────────

BREADTH CHECK

───────────────────────────────────────────

This is where the picture becomes clear.

% S&P 500 above 50 MA (S5FI): 60.43 (+8.57% on Friday)

% S&P 500 above 200 MA (S5TH): 61.03 (+3.02% on Friday)

Both breadth indicators accelerated sharply on Friday. S5TH just broke decisively above its own 200-day average — a structural bullish signal that typically leads price action on the indices.

VIX at 17.67 (-9.06%): no fear regime.

Verdict: Healthy and improving. Breadth is leading, not lagging.

───────────────────────────────────────────

SECTOR ROTATION

───────────────────────────────────────────

Money is moving with conviction this week. The sector rotation scanner shows clean separation between leaders and laggards.

BUILDING LEADERSHIP (RS accelerating vs SPY):

→ XLK Technology (+32.2)

→ XLV Health Care (+27.8)

→ XME Metals & Mining (+26.6)

→ XLI Industrials (+14.4)

→ XLF Financials (+14.2)

→ XLB Materials (+13.5)

→ XLRE Real Estate (+12.8)

LOSING GROUND (RS deteriorating vs SPY):

→ XLP Consumer Staples (-4.6)

→ XLU Utilities (-4.6)

→ XLY Consumer Discretionary (-9.2)

→ XLE Energy (-18.6)

→ XLC Communication Services (-24.2)

This is a textbook risk-on rotation: cyclicals leading, defensives lagging. Tech and Health Care at the top, Energy and Communication Services rolling over.

───────────────────────────────────────────

MACRO FLAGS — WEEK AHEAD

───────────────────────────────────────────

This is FOMC week. Plan accordingly.

→ Tuesday 16 June: FOMC Day 1 (no announcement, positioning day)

→ Wednesday 17 June (THE BIG ONE):

• 8:30 AM ET — Retail Sales (May 2026)

• 2:00 PM ET — FOMC rate decision + Summary of Economic Projections

• 2:30 PM ET — Warsh press conference

→ Thursday 18 June: Post-FOMC digestion. Volatility likely.

→ Friday 19 June: Quad witching week — options expiry can amplify moves.

───────────────────────────────────────────

VERDICT RATIONALE

───────────────────────────────────────────

The bull case is built on breadth, not price.

SPY and QQQ have pulled back to test their 20 MAs — that’s a normal, healthy reset within an established uptrend. What matters is what the rest of the market is doing while that happens. And the rest of the market is accelerating: 60% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 MAs, 61% above their 200 MAs, both rising sharply on Friday.

That’s the signature of broad participation. Not a tired rally narrowing into a few names — a market where the bench is showing up.

The KISS posture is full deployment (0.75% risk per trade) — but with one tactical adjustment: FOMC week.

What invalidates this verdict:

→ SPY closes below 50 MA ($722.80)

→ VIX spikes above 22

→ S5FI rolls back below 50

→ Powell signals an unexpected hawkish pivot Wednesday

───────────────────────────────────────────

EXECUTION FRAMEWORK — FOMC WEEK

───────────────────────────────────────────

→ Monday 15 June: Trade A-grade breakouts with full size. Volume must confirm.

→ Tuesday 16 June: Trade selectively. Reduce position size to 0.5% on new entries.

→ Wednesday 17 June: NO new entries before 2 PM ET. Let FOMC clear.

→ Thursday 18 June: Wait for direction confirmation post-FOMC before adding risk.

→ Friday 19 June: Witching week — let the noise pass.

The system doesn’t ask you to predict the Fed. It asks you to size accordingly.

═══════════════════════════════════════════

WATCHLIST + TRADE PLAN (PAID)

═══════════════════════════════════════════

Paid subscribers receive immediately below:

→ The Weekly Watchlist with three annotated PCP setups

→ Entry levels, stop losses, and R-targets for each

→ The Trade Plan of the Week — fully sized, ready to execute Monday

Everything is decided before Monday opens. You execute. The system does the thinking.

Upgrade at kisstrading.uk to access the full system.

───────────────────────────────────────────

Trade Tight · Think in R · Focus on Process

— Radu

KISS Trading

───────────────────────────────────────────

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR

.